【川财研究】九条措施力促煤价回归合理区间

Jointown Pharmaceuticals (600998.SH):Investment Highlights

Pharmaceutical distribution leader benefited from improved market size and concentration

Jointown (600998.SH) is currently the largest listed private company in the field of pharmaceutical distribution. Influenced by policies including the “two-invoice system”, “the reform program to replace the business tax with a value-added tax” as well as “the hierarchical medical system”, the market size and concentration improved significantly benefiting industrial leaders as Jointown.

Fundraised through non-public offering boosts operating revenue

A total of approximately CNY3.6 billion has been raised through non-public offering, which is aimed to supplement the company’s working capital. Based on a 68% average debt to asset ratio and 1.7asset turnover ratio, the total amount of funds raised was about CNY 3.57billion excluding issuance fees and the fund is expected to contribute to amain business operating revenue exceeding CNY10 billion.

Channel expansion conductive to the rise of gross margin

The company’s pharmaceuticals, medical equipment and other products wholesale business accounted for over 95% of thecompany’s overall business. The wholesale business has mainly three channels:

1. distribution business: distributors as its main clients, a relatively high proportion and low gross margin (about 4-5%); 
2. pharmacies and clinics: high gross margin (9%-10%) and increasing business volume; 
3. public hospitals and primary medical institutions: rapid expansion in proportion and high grossmargin (9%-10%).

We give Jointown “increase” rating for the initial coverage

Taking into consideration the strengths and catalysts mentioned above, we estimate in 2018-2020, the company’s net profit attributable to parent company will be CNY 1.45, 1.88, 2.35 billion respectively, corresponds to the EPS as CNY0.77, 1.00, 1.25/share, PE as23.70(X),18.25(X) and 14.60(X). The current sector PE（TTM）median stands at 25.42(X). Given that Jointown is the industrial leader in the pharmaceutical retail market, we give the company “increase”rating for the initial coverage.

【川财研究*国防军工】中航电子（600372）：航电系统上市平台，军民品市场空间大

中航电子是航空工业集团旗下航电系统上市平台

中航电子是航空工业旗下航空电子系统上市平台，致力于为客户提供综合化的航空电子系统整体解决方案，是国内航空电子系统全产业链的主要供应商。

公司军机航电系统产品谱系全面，未来市场空间大

公司军机航电系统产品谱系全面，具有较高的行业认可度。我国当前军机规模远小于美国，不足美国四分之一。随着我国军改逐步落地、国防预算的稳定增长，歼20、歼16、运20等先进机型陆续交付，我国空军装备更新换代加快，我们预计未来十年军机航电系统市场规模超1600亿元。

民机航电系统前景广阔，有望成为公司新亮点

公司通过国产C919、AG600等民机项目，已深度参与到民机航电系统项目，并成功争取民机航电系统演示验证项目，据测算未来20年我国民机航电系统市场规模近2000亿美元，有望成为公司业绩新亮点。

公司非航空防务及非航空民品业务保持稳定增长

公司立足航空主业，同时积极拓展非航空防务及民用市场，落实航空技术衍生，面向航天、兵器、船舶、电子信息、智能系统、机电自动化、基础器件等业务领域提供相关配套系统解决方案、产品及服务。

可转债成功发行加速新项目产业化进程

2017年底公司成功发行24亿元可转债项目，主要用于激光照明、电作动驱动及传动系统、高安全数据处理系统等11个军民融合产业化项目，未来有望成为公司新的业绩增长点。

首次覆盖予以“增持”评级

随着航空装备列装加速，可转债项目的实施，我们预计2018-2020年公司主营业务收入分别为77.25、86.52、97.77亿元，归属于母公司净利润分别为5.86、6.97、8.08亿元，实现EPS分别为0.33、0.40、0.46元，对应PE分别为45.20、38.00、32.80倍，首次覆盖给予“增持”评级。